About 123GW of solar power was installed globally in 2019

According to the latest research forecast released by IHS Markit, 123 GW of solar photovoltaic installations are expected to be added in 2019, an increase of 18% over the new installed capacity expected this year. This is more positive than PV Infolink's recent estimate that the market will add 112 GW.

Edurne Zoco, research director for solar and energy storage, said that while China currently accounts for about half of the global market, its dominance will gradually wane, predicting that two-thirds of new capacity will be located elsewhere.

Instead, the report revealed the recovery or emergence of several other markets. These include Argentina, Egypt, South Africa, Spain and Vietnam, which together account for 7% of the market in 2019, or 7 GW of new capacity.

Edurne Zoco said: "The photovoltaic industry is becoming more geographically distributed, with photovoltaic installations growing at more than 20 percent per year in 45 countries."

In the United States, currently the second-largest solar PV market, Zoco said installations will grow 28 percent next year as developers scramble to launch projects in time for the 30 percent investment tax credit deadline next December.

Looking ahead to the manufacturing sector, which has been severely affected by China's 531 policy changes, IHS Markit said capacity across the supply chain will be limited. On the contrary, higher utilization is expected, which helps to alleviate the current overcapacity situation.

In terms of prices, while they collapsed in the second half of the year, price declines in shipments have slowed in the first half of 2019 due to continued strong demand outside of China, especially in Mexico, Vietnam and Spain.

"Many international developers have pushed ahead with purchases, fearing that China's upcoming new solar policy may affect module supply from first-tier players in the international market," Zoco said.

Recently, Jenny Chase, head of solar analysis at BloombergNEF, said that the global average module price is currently around 23-26 cents per watt. "Due to oversupply, we expect a decline of 10-15% by the end of 2019." The average price paid by developers of utility-scale plants is about 23 cents."